Created in 1913 with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the central banking system of the U.S. The Fed functions as the bank of the U.S. government, overseeing the nation’s financial institutions. As the central bank, the Fed safeguards and manages the U.S. economy and its money supply with its economic and monetary policies, which makes it a very powerful global player.
This past weekend, a friend of mine made a statement that there must be a large amount of economic growth coming shortly because of the booming stock market, driven by investor sentiment. As I told him, the two are not necessarily tied together. Over the past few months, we have heard about how economic growth is about to accelerate here in America, and this has helped drive investor sentiment in the stock market higher. However, I think there are many questions that need to be answered before we can assume economic growth will reach escape velocity, and investor sentiment is heavily contaminated with a large addictio ... Read More
Just the other day, I was talking to a friend of mine who seemed extremely cheerful. I asked why, and he said that his investments have performed well over the past few months and he saw no reasons to worry. This is a common problem with investor sentiment; people tend to become complacent and only look to the recent past as an indication of what tomorrow will bring. This is quite dangerous. Investor sentiment is often wrong and can be used as a contrary indicator, buying when others are dumping their stocks and taking profits when others are blissfully unaware of the changing land ... Read More
I have been in this business a long time, and I believe that the best tactic is to combine as many positive factors as possible in order to have the highest probability of success. There are essentially three main methods to look at; this includes fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and quantitative models. You don’t need every single category of analysis to be completed; you just need enough evidence from all to indicate whether or not a stock or index will move up or down. Obviously, there is no 100% guarantee, only a level of probability. Taking a look at the precious metals market, over the past coup ... Read More
Every day it seems as though the S&P 500 makes a new high. This strong performance over the past year is creating complacency, as more retail investors are piling into the market. However, I would certainly urge caution, especially for any new capital being put to work at these lofty levels. With earnings season upon us, we’ve already seen several sectors in the S&P 500 get hit significantly, especially retail stocks. We keep hearing about resilience among Americans, but consumer sentiment is not as strong as many analysts believe. This is why I wasn’t surprised when retailers disappointed. One of ... Read More
One of the interesting things about investors is how so many become complacent over time. When precious metals like silver were rising steadily, more and more people jumped on the bandwagon. But times have changed.With few people in the media talking about precious metals, I think it’s a good time to take a look at silver, as 2014 could potentially be a very strong year for the metal. Obviously, we know that 2013 was a tough year for most of the precious metals, as investors began to believe that economic growth was going to accelerate globally. Over the ... Read More