euro
How to Profit from ECB’s Attempts to End Economic Slowdown
By Moe Zulfiqar for Daily Gains Letter | Mar 31, 2014
Remember what happened in the U.S. economy when the financial system was about to collapse? The banks weren’t lending to each other, businesses, or even consumers. The U.S. economy was in a deep economic slowdown. Investment banks like the Lehman Brothers had already collapsed and more would follow. Something had to be done or else it would be a disaster situation.
When all of this was happening, the Federal Reserve stepped in to save the U.S. economy. It started to use a monetary policy tool called quantitative easing. The idea was simple: print money out of thin air and then buy back bad debt from the banks. As a result of this, the banks would have liquidity, which would eventually create more lending, moving the U.S. economy towards the path of economic growth.
You can look at Japan as another example of this. In order to fight the economic slowdown in that country, the Bank of Japan took similar actions to those of the Federal Reserve—I must say, the central bank of Japan has been involved with quantitative easing for a while.
The central bank of Japan wanted economic growth, which was what the Federal Reserve had hoped for in the U.S. economy. Japan’s central bank believed that by introducing quantitative easing, the value of the currency would go down and exports from the country would increase. The Bank of Japan also hoped that the quantitative easing would take the country away from the deflationary period it has been experiencing for some time.
With this in mind, you will come across various arguments. Some will say that quantitative easing has … Read More
Why It “Won’t Be Different” This Time Around
By Moe Zulfiqar for Daily Gains Letter | Nov 26, 2013
Buy the U.S. dollar, because it’s going to gain strength going forward, or so say the mainstream. The reasoning behind this investment strategy is very simple: the central banks of major economic hubs are working to devalue their currencies. As a result, there will be a rush to buy the U.S. dollar—it’s proven to be safe in the past. Just look at Japan, for example; it continues to be in favor of printing, which is why you should sell the Japanese yen. The European Central Bank (ECB) has hinted it might go ahead with quantitative easing—sell the euro. Others, like Australia, have already lowered their interest rates, and while they haven’t started printing yet, but say they are open to it—sell the Australian dollar.
In the short run, these investment strategies may be viable. In fact, since late October, we have been seeing the U.S. dollar gain strength compared to other major currencies. Please look at the chart below of the U.S. dollar index.
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
I question if this strategy of buying the U.S. dollar is going to be profitable in the long run. Those who are looking at the fundamentals of the U.S. dollar from a long-term perceptive will agree with me that they are looking very bleak.
First, the printing continues. We heard from the Federal Reserve that it will continue to print U.S. dollars in exchange for government bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Sadly, what many don’t realize is that even if the central bank says it will taper, it simply means it will be printing, just at a slower pace. What this printing … Read More
How Investors Are Profiting as the Eurozone Crisis Makes a Comeback
By Moe Zulfiqar for Daily Gains Letter | Nov 21, 2013
Major economic hubs in the global economy are in outright trouble, and each passing day there’s more economic data suggesting the slowdown is holding its own. Investors need to be wary about what’s happening, because it can affect their portfolio significantly.
The eurozone crisis, which sent ripple effects into the global economy, is rising again. In the early days of the eurozone crisis, we heard how the economies of such nations like Greece, Spain, and Portugal were suffering. Now, the bigger nations in the euro region are showing signs of stress. Consider France, the second-biggest economy in the eurozone, for example. This major economic hub in the global economy witnessed contraction in the third quarter. On top of this, France’s unemployment rate continues to increase.
Germany, the biggest economy in the eurozone and the fourth-biggest economic hub in the global economy, slowed in the third quarter. The gross domestic product (GDP) of the country increased just 0.3% in the third quarter. In the second quarter, Germany’s GDP increased by 0.7%. (Source: “Gross domestic product up 0.3% in 3rd quarter of 2013,” Destatis, November 14, 2013.)
Similarly, Japan, the third-biggest nation in the global economy, continues to struggle, despite the extraordinary measures the central bank and Japanese government have taken to boost the economy. In the third quarter, the growth rate of the Japanese economy slowed down. The GDP grew 0.5% from the previous quarter. The annual GDP growth rate of the Japanese economy was 1.9% in the third quarter. (Source: “Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2013,” Cabinet Office, Government of Japan web site, November 14, 2013.)
Adding more to the … Read More
